As we approach the end of the first stage of the 35th America’s Cup, we are presented with information overload. After two years of studying grainy video and photoshopped images for any hint of performance indicators, suddenly, the evidence is pouring in from a firehouse. 

But how do we sort it out? Which indicator is important? Is the real Artemis Racing the team that went toe to toe with top-rated challenger Emirates Team New Zealand on two consecutive days and also beat ORACLE TEAM USA, or the one that has dropped races to relative laggards like Groupama Team France and Land Rover BAR? 

Is France a giant killer, or punching above its weight?
 

© Ricardo Pinto

And what to make of Land Rover BAR? Each of its two wins over Artemis Racing, for example, had team supporters crowing about all being right in the British challenge, ‘we’re on the right track’. But the next day seems to make the day before seem like a false summit. 

In the daily press conferences, we hear the most accomplished sailors in the world talk about the mistakes they’ve made. Over and over they rue their errors. And how severely each one is punished. Are these top crews this ill-prepared? 

It’s not that straightforward. Attributing losses to crew mistakes gives the sailors a feeling of control. Mistakes can be fixed after all. And in this America’s Cup all of the sailors would be happy to increase their sense of control. 

It is often thought by outsiders that America’s Cup campaigns suffer for lack of money. But insiders will always tell you that time is the finite resource. You always could do more, they say. If you had more time, you’d be better prepared, we hear.
 

© Gilles Martin-Raget

In the 35th America’s Cup, with the new America’s Cup Class boats opening up new areas of development – foil shapes and sizes, control systems, fitness – the learning curve is not a curve at all. Rather, it is a very steep climb. 

Now, one week into racing, at a stage in the competition when crews past would long ago have been handed the final yacht to learn, the designers and boat-builders are still unlocking potential. But every design breakthrough is a false summit. There is always more on the table, we're told. Significantly more. 

That means the sailors are always being given a new boat to learn. 

Teams are racing on foils they’ve never sailed with before, testing in real time during racing.

In terms of foil design, there is a rough correlation between instability and speed. The designers are learning how to make faster foils. But the sailors then need to learn how to overcome the associated instability. 

What we’re seeing now is a mismatch between the boat the designers have provided and the skill of the sailors to tame the beast. 
 

© Ricardo Pinto

Ideally, those lines would intersect before racing starts. But in this America’s Cup, the line representing design improvements is constantly moving, just out of reach, just past what we think, today, may be the summit. And the sailors keep dutifully trudging along, ever higher, trying to wrestle in the potential that keeps moving away from them with each step.

At some point over the next three weeks, this will change. The pace of modifications will slow. The sailors will catch up. The mistakes will be fewer. The racing will be crisper. Today, perhaps we can see the top of the mountain. Maybe we’ll get there soon. But more likely it's another false summit. All we know is we’re not there yet.

@CupScribe

www.americascup.com